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(Chest. 2001;119:1337-1346.)
© 2001 American College of Chest Physicians

Short-term and Long-term Outcomes After Bilateral Lung Volume Reduction Surgery*

Prediction by Quantitative CT

Kevin R. Flaherty, MD; Ella A. Kazerooni, MD, FCCP; Jeffrey L. Curtis, MD; Mark Iannettoni, MD; Leslie Lange, PhD; M. Anthony Schork, PhD and Fernando J. Martinez, MD, FCCP

* From the Department of Internal Medicine (Drs. Flaherty and Martinez), Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, the Department of Radiology (Dr. Kazerooni), Chest Division, and the Department of Surgery (Dr. Iannettoni), Division of Cardiothoracic Surgery, University of Michigan Health System; the Department of Biostatistics (Drs. Lange and Schork), University of Michigan School of Public Health; and the Medical Service (Dr. Curtis), Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine Section, Department of Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Ann Arbor, MI.

Correspondence to: Fernando J. Martinez, MD, Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, 3916 Taubman Center, Box 0360, 1500 E Medical Center Dr, University of Michigan Medical Center, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-0360; e-mail: fmartine{at}umich.edu


    Abstract
 TOP
 Abstract
 Introduction
 Materials and Methods
 Results
 Discussion
 References
 
Objectives: To evaluate selection criteria and duration of benefit for patients undergoing lung volume reduction surgery (LVRS).

Methods: Eighty-nine consecutive patients with severe emphysema who underwent bilateral LVRS were prospectively followed up for up to 3 years. Patients underwent preoperative pulmonary function testing, 6-min walk, chest CT, and answered a baseline dyspnea questionnaire. CT scans in 65 patients were analyzed for emphysema extent and distribution using the percentage of emphysema in the lung, percentage of normal lower lung, and the CT emphysema ratio (CTR, an index of the craniocaudal distribution of emphysema). All patients underwent at least 6 weeks of pulmonary rehabilitation prior to surgery. Outcome measures were FEV1, 6-min walk distance, and transitional dyspnea index (TDI).

Results: Compared to baseline, FEV1 was significantly increased at 3, 6, 12, 18, 24, and 36 months after surgery (p <= 0.008). The 6-min walk distance increased from 871 feet (baseline) to 1,110 feet (3 months), 1,214 feet (6 months), 1,326 feet (12 months), 1,342 feet (18 months), 1,371 feet (24 months), and 1,390 feet (36 months) after surgery. Despite a decline in FEV1 over time, 6-min walk distance was preserved. Dyspnea as measured by TDI improved at 3, 6, 12, 18, 24, and 36 months after surgery. A high CTR was the best predictor of a 12% increase over baseline and an absolute increase of 200 mL in FEV1, although with a low area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. In addition, the sensitivity and negative predictive value of the CTR were limited. No radiographic or physiologic predictor was able to consistently predict a successful increase in walk distance or TDI.

Conclusion: LVRS improves pulmonary function, decreases dyspnea, and enhances exercise capacity in many patients with severe emphysema, although improvement wanes 36 months after surgery.

Key Words: CT • emphysema • exercise capacity • lung volume reduction


    Introduction
 TOP
 Abstract
 Introduction
 Materials and Methods
 Results
 Discussion
 References
 
Lung volume reduction surgery (LVRS) is a recently reintroduced therapy for advanced emphysema that improves dyspnea, exercise capacity, pulmonary function, and quality of life in a stringently selected group of patients.1 2 A major unanswered question is whether preoperative testing can predict individual patient benefit. Since an estimated 2 million people in the United States are afflicted with emphysema, a disease responsible for considerable patient morbidity and use of health-care resources, it is essential to accurately define the role of LVRS. Although physiologic improvement following LVRS has been reported consistently, the reported change in FEV1 has varied widely from 27%2 to 82%.1 This range may be a reflection of heterogeneous patient populations, differences in selection criteria, or different surgical techniques. Furthermore, assessment of benefit requires definition of success. Because FEV1 correlates loosely with survival in COPD, improvement in FEV1 is one criterion. However, FEV1 is not an optimal outcome, as dyspnea, the major limiting symptom of emphysema, correlates poorly with FEV1.3

It has been shown that surgically reducing lung volume can result in decreased dynamic hyperinflation, a finding that correlated with decreased exertional dyspnea.4 If improvement following LVRS is simply related to preoperative hyperinflation, then the majority of patients with emphysema may benefit from this surgery. However, patients with diffuse emphysema have been reported to have lesser postoperative improvement compared to patients with focal upper-lobe-predominant emphysema.5 6 7 8 9

We prospectively assessed the long-term clinical outcome after bilateral LVRS in a cohort of 89 patients followed up for up to 36 months. We additionally examined the ability of measures of emphysema distribution from CT and baseline pulmonary function parameters to predict successful clinical outcomes.


    Materials and Methods
 TOP
 Abstract
 Introduction
 Materials and Methods
 Results
 Discussion
 References
 
Preoperative Evaluation
All 476 consecutive LVRS candidates evaluated at the University of Michigan Health System between August 1994 and April 1998 were eligible. All patients in this study were evaluated and enrolled prior to the initiation of the National Emphysema Treatment Trial at our institution. All patients underwent a comprehensive 1-day evaluation, which included history and physical examination; complete pulmonary function testing (postbronchodilator spirometry, static lung volumes, diffusion capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide [DLCO], arterial blood gas analysis); 6-min walk distance; posteroanterior and lateral chest radiographs; and chest CT at a time of clinical stability. The Mahler baseline dyspnea index10 was administered to all patients within 2 weeks of surgery at the final preoperative clinic visit. General and pulmonary exclusion criteria have been previously described.11 The anatomic distribution of emphysema was not an initial selection criterion. However, as data were reported from other centers supporting that patients with diffuse emphysema did less well than patients with upper-lobe-predominant emphysema,5 6 7 8 9 the selection process was altered to include consideration of emphysema distribution. As this was not an initial selection criterion, the current cohort includes patients with differing distribution of emphysema, which allows emphysema distribution to be considered as a potential predictor of a successful outcome.

To be considered for LVRS, patients needed clinical and CT scan evidence of emphysema, physiologic evidence of severe airflow obstruction, and hyperinflation (residual volume [RV] > 180% predicted or total lung capacity [TLC] > 105% predicted). In an effort to exclude patients with chronic bronchitis, patients with more than three teaspoons of sputum production per day were excluded. All patients were required to have stopped smoking for at least 6 months. Patients were tested and excluded from this analysis if positive for {alpha}1-antiprotease deficiency to maximize the homogenous nature of the study group. The decision to advance to further testing was based on these data and consensus decision by our LVRS study group (pulmonologists, thoracic surgeons, thoracic radiologist, and clinical coordinator).

Patients eligible for surgery underwent dobutamine echocardiography to exclude inducible coronary ischemia and screen for pulmonary hypertension.11 Patients with evidence of pulmonary hypertension underwent right-heart catheterization. Patients not excluded were enrolled in or asked to continue with pulmonary rehabilitation. If patients had previously completed a course of pulmonary rehabilitation, they were asked to reenroll prior to undergoing LVRS. The preoperative target for successful rehabilitation was to exercise for 30 min (continuous) on a level treadmill at 1 to 1.5 miles per hour. The protocol was approved by the University of Michigan Health System Institutional Review Board. Eighty-nine of the 476 screened patients were eligible and elected to undergo LVRS.

Pulmonary Function Tests and 6-min Hall Walk
Pulmonary function tests were performed on a single day after administration of 2.5 mg of albuterol via nebulizer. All baseline measures were obtained during a period of clinical stability and within 3 months of surgery. Spirometric studies were performed on a calibrated pneumotachograph (Medical Graphics; St. Paul, MN); best overall effort was chosen and values expressed relative to standards of Morris et al.12 Lung volumes were measured by whole-body plethysmography and expressed as a percentage of normal values of Miller et al.13 DLCO was measured by single-breath technique using normal values of Miller et al.13 Exercise testing was measured by a standard 6-min walk performed in an air-conditioned hall after standard instructions,4 with distance measured in feet. As the 6-min walk is dependent on effort, technique, and coaching,14 we used a constant measuring technique and two tests were performed at each visit to minimize variability. Supplemental oxygen was titrated to maintain oxygen saturation > 88%.

Chest CT
High-resolution CT was performed in all cases at 1.0-mm to 1.5-mm collimation at 1-cm intervals throughout the lungs using a General Electric HiSpeed or CT/i scanner operating in nonhelical mode (GE Medical Systems; Milwaukee, WI) for visual confirmation of emphysema. In the last 65 consecutive patients undergoing surgery, helical CT was also performed during a single inspiratory breath-hold lasting 15 to 20 s at 10-mm collimation and pitch 2 (table speed of 2 cm/s). Scanning was from the caudal to cranial direction. Patients took several hyperventilatory breaths prior to scanning. If patients were not able to breath-hold for the entire acquisition, they were instructed to slowly exhale during the final seconds of data acquisition through the lung apices; no significant motion artifact was detected. Given the severe emphysema with trapping of air at the apices, little change in lung volume and attenuation was noted.

From the helical CT data, total lung volume and emphysema volume were quantified and displayed using attenuation thresholds by density mask analysis15 16 17 rendered on a GE Windows Workstation (GE Medical Systems). Shaded surface displays, demonstrating emphysema as evident at the edge of the lung, were used to visually demonstrate the results of the three-dimensional density mask, but were not used for analysis. For the 65 patients undergoing helical CT, the following analysis was performed. Total lung volume was defined as all pixels < - 700 Hounsfield units and emphysema as all pixels < - 900 Hounsfield units, acknowledging that mild emphysema may be missed.16 17 18 19 The percentage of emphysema was calculated for the upper and lower halves of the lung, divided midpoint between lung apices and the diaphragm.20 The CT emphysema ratio (CTR) was calculated using the following equation:

The CTR was used as a measure of the craniocaudal distribution of emphysema in the lungs. A high CTR indicates relatively focal upper-lung-predominant emphysema (Fig 1 , top), a ratio near 1 indicates relatively diffuse emphysema (Fig 1 , bottom), and a ratio < 1 indicates relatively focal lower-lung-predominant emphysema. The percentage of normal lower lung was calculated by the formula: (1 - [emphysema volume in lower lung/total volume of lower lung]) x 100. The percentage of emphysema in the entire lung was calculated using the following formula:



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Figure 1. Examples of different CTRs. Helical CT three-dimensional shaded surface display renderings of upper-lobe-predominant and diffuse emphysema in the anterior projection. The gray shaded object represents the total lung volume. The superimposed lighted "white" regions represent emphysema. Top: A 66-year-old woman with severe upper-lobe-predominant emphysema (CTR of 4.0, total percentage of emphysema was 26.2%). Bottom: A 54-year-old woman with severe diffuse emphysema (CTR of 1.3, total percentage emphysema was 52.8%).

 
Surgery
Bilateral upper-lobe LVRS was performed via sternotomy as described by Cooper et al.1 Lung stapling was performed with automatic linear stapling devices (Autosuture GIA; US Surgical Corporation; Norwalk, CT), and suture lines were buttressed using bovine pericardium (Peristrips; Biovascular; St. Paul, MN). All patients continued to participate in pulmonary rehabilitation programs after surgery.

Follow-up Data
Patients were seen by their LVRS pulmonologist at 3, 6, 12, 18, 24, and 36 months postoperatively, at which time spirometry, static lung volumes, DLCO, arterial blood gas, 6-min walk distance, and transition dyspnea index (TDI) measures were collected. Patients not returning for physiologic testing were contacted by phone to ascertain why they had missed their follow-up appointment. Patients undergoing lung transplantation (n = 3) were censored from further analysis at the time of transplant.

Definitions of Response
Three separate outcomes were evaluated, including spirometry, 6-min walk distance, and TDI. Each outcome was assessed at 3, 6, 12, 18, 24, and 36 months.

Spirometry:
For FEV1, a responder was defined as both an absolute increase of 200 mL and a 12% increase compared to baseline adopting the American Thoracic Society recommendations for spirometric response to a bronchodilator.21

6-min Walk Distance:
This was defined as an increase of >= 200 feet. This threshold was chosen from the minimum improvement in walk distance reported by investigators studying pulmonary rehabilitation alone22 and LVRS in emphysema patients.23 24

TDI:
A change of >= 3 was considered significant. A TDI of 3 was chosen as a significant response to reflect an improvement in dyspnea in excess of that generally reported in the literature resulting from pulmonary rehabilitation alone in patients with very severe airflow obstruction.25

Statistical Analysis
Baseline and post-LVRS FEV1, 6-min walk distance, and TDI were compared using a mixed-model analysis of variance with time as the repeated measure. Data are expressed as the mean ± SE. In order to determine the optimal preoperative predictors of a response (defined above), the following predictor variables were used for individual logistic regression analysis: FEV1, FEV1 (% predicted), RV (% predicted); TLC (% predicted), RV/TLC, DLCO (% predicted), CTR, percentage of normal lower lung, total percentage of emphysema, and age. Data analyses were adjusted for pulmonary rehabilitation status before initial 6-min walk testing. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were generated for each of the individual predictors at each follow-up time for each outcome (FEV1, 6-min walk distance, and TDI) and the area under the ROC curve (AZ) was calculated. Following this initial analysis, individual predictor variables associated with a p value of < 0.1 from simple linear regression analysis, at any of the six follow-up time periods, for any outcome, were used in combination as the input variables for multiple logistic regression. ROC curves were then generated for each combination. ROC analysis was performed using SAS software (SAS Institute; Cary, NC). ROC curves were compared as described by Metz et al.26 Positive predictive value (PPV), reflecting the likelihood of having a positive outcome given a positive test result, and negative predictive value (NPV), reflecting the likelihood of having a negative outcome given a negative test result, were calculated using the prevalence of response calculated from the data at each follow-up time point. The influence of age on survival was analyzed using Cox regression analysis.


    Results
 TOP
 Abstract
 Introduction
 Materials and Methods
 Results
 Discussion
 References
 
The baseline characteristics of the 89 consecutive patients undergoing bilateral LVRS via median sternotomy constituting the current study cohort are summarized in Table 1 . Three hundred eight-seven patients initially screened did not undergo LVRS. Reasons for exclusion included anatomic considerations (n = 131), patient too ill for surgery from medical comorbidity (n = 27), patient too well by physiologic criteria (n = 33), lung nodule potentially requiring surgery (n = 4), reimbursement issues (n = 97), screening not completed prior to the beginning of the National Emphysema Treatment Trial (n = 41), patient still smoking (n = 8), and other miscellaneous reasons (n = 46). The average patient age at the time of surgery was 60.4 ± 0.9 years; there were 47 men and 42 women. Physiologic follow-up for evaluable patients was obtained in 94% at 3 months (79 of 84 patients), 89% at 6 months (74 of 83 patients), 83% at 12 months (69 of 83 patients), 75% at 18 months (61 of 81 patients), 75% at 24 months (51 of 68 patients), and 74% at 36 months (34 of 46 patients). Patients missing data at 36 months (n = 12) were contacted by phone. The reasons for failure to follow-up were marked improvement with return to work that precluded a return visit (n = 4), death (n = 1), lung transplantation (n = 1), or functional deterioration (n = 2). Two patients considered themselves in stable condition and two patients could not be contacted.


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Table 1. Descriptive Characteristics of 89 Consecutive Patients Undergoing Bilateral LVRS via Median Sternotomy*

 
Mortality and Complications
Operative (in-hospital and 30-day) mortality was 5.6% (5 of 89 patients). Two deaths were secondary to respiratory failure, one death was due to mediastinitis, one death was due to sepsis, and one death was due to a ruptured pulmonary artery. The age of the patients experiencing operative mortality was greater (68.7 ± 3 years vs 60.0 ± 1 years; p = 0.01, unpaired t test) than the patients surviving surgery. These patients were excluded from the outcome analysis. During the 36-month follow-up period, an additional 11 patients died, including 5 from progressive respiratory failure, 3 from complications of metastatic bronchogenic carcinoma, 2 from complications after lung transplantation, and 1 patient who died in her sleep. Of these 11 additional deaths, 1 death occurred during the first year of follow-up, 4 deaths occurred during the second year of follow-up, and the remaining 6 deaths occurred during the third year of follow-up. Using Cox regression analysis, age was a weak predictor of mortality (risk ratio, 1.06; p = 0.05) if all cases were included. Age was not a significant predictor of mortality in the 84 patients surviving surgery (p = 0.30).

Postoperative Outcomes
There was improvement in FEV1 from baseline in the majority of patients at all time points of follow-up, although FEV1 declined over time (Fig 2 ). The FEV1 at each follow-up time was significantly (p < 0.008) higher than baseline. The degree of improvement in FEV1 was varied by patient as demonstrated in Table 2 .



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Figure 2. Change in FEV1 over time following bilateral LVRS. The FEV1 at each follow-up time was significantly different from baseline (p <= 0.008).

 

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Table 2. Degree of Improvement in FEV1 at Each Time Interval

 
The 6-min walk distance was also significantly increased above baseline at each follow-up interval (p = 0.001; Fig 3 ). Although all patients completed a course of pulmonary rehabilitation prior to LVRS, the baseline 6-min walk distance was performed before pulmonary rehabilitation in 32 patients and after completion of pulmonary rehabilitation in the other 57 patients. As expected, the prerehabilitation baseline walk distance was decreased compared to patients having their baseline walk measured after completing a course of pulmonary rehabilitation. Importantly, there was no difference at 3 months and the response was similar, with both groups showing an increased 6-min walk distance at 3, 6, 12, 18, 24, and 36 months after surgery (data not shown). Interestingly, the rise in 6-min walk distance changed little between 12 months and 36 months after surgery, and there was no statistical difference between any time point from 6 to 36 months.



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Figure 3. Mean 6-min walk over time following bilateral LVRS. All time points were significantly higher than baseline (p = 0.001).

 
An improvement in dyspnea was evident at all time points of follow-up, although the level of improvement decreased after 12 months (Fig 4 ). Subgroup analysis of patients grouped by initial pulmonary rehabilitation status (yes/no) at the time of initial evaluation revealed no significant differences between groups (data not shown).



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Figure 4. TDI scores over time following bilateral LVRS. Analysis of TDI over time demonstrated a significant response (p = 0.0001) with specific significant differences between 3 and 24 months, 3 and 36 months, 6 and 18 months, 6 and 24 months, 6 and 36 months, 12 and 18 months, 12 and 24 months, 12 and 36 months, 18 and 36 months, and 24 and 36 months (p < 0.03). Notably, the baseline dyspnea index in this cohort of patients demonstrated severe baseline dyspnea (2.5 ± 0.2).

 
A definite subset of patients failed to demonstrate a significant response to LVRS, and the percentage of patients without a positive FEV1 or TDI response increased over time after surgery (Fig 5 ). Interestingly, the proportion of 6-min walk nonresponders decreased over time. This discrepancy between FEV1 and 6-min walk distance is further highlighted by the fact that 22 patients never met criteria for a FEV1 response, although 11 of these patients demonstrated a significant improvement in 6-min walk distance. All patients had at least a transient improvement in dyspnea although the mean TDI for FEV1 responders was significantly higher than that for nonresponders at all time points except 24 months and 36 months (data not shown).



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Figure 5. Percentage of patients not meeting response criteria (see text) for FEV1, 6-min hall walk, and TDI following bilateral LVRS.

 
Preoperative Values as Predictors of Response
FEV1:
Individual logistic regression analysis identified the CTR as the best single predictor of a successful increase in FEV1. A typical ROC curve using the CTR as a predictor is shown for FEV1 at 6 months (Fig 6 ). Several additional individual predictors demonstrated statistical significance at various time points. In an attempt to improve the predictive ability of the CTR, multiple logistic regressions were performed using combinations of predictors that demonstrated a p value <= 0.1 at any time during follow-up. Using this approach, a model incorporating CTR and RV/TLC was able to improve the predictive ability of CTR alone. However, comparison of the ROC curves was not statistically different (p > 0.25 for all time points). The AZ at each time point for CTR, RV/TLC, and combination of CTR and RV/TLC is shown in Table 3 . The sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of predicting a successful FEV1 outcome for various CTR values are shown in Table 4 . Importantly, the highest CTR scores (> 2.5) were associated with a > 90% specificity at each time point up to 36 months, although the sensitivity was low. The PPV of this threshold was at least 75% up to 36 months after surgery. The NPV remained moderate at all thresholds throughout 36 months of follow-up.



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Figure 6. ROC curve illustrating the ability of CTR to predict a 12% and 200-mL increase in FEV1 6 months after bilateral LVRS (AZ = 0.74, p = 0.006).

 

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Table 3. AZ for Predicting Response to Therapy for CTR, RV/TLC, and CTR + RV/TLC*

 

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Table 4. Sensitivity and Specificity of Predicting a FEV1 Response by Varying CTR Threshold Values

 
6-min Walk Test and TDI:
Various individual predictors showed statistical significance, but none were consistent over time (Table 3) . Multiple logistic regression was performed as described above which identified several models that were predictive at various time points, but no model was consistently predictive at each time period.


    Discussion
 TOP
 Abstract
 Introduction
 Materials and Methods
 Results
 Discussion
 References
 
This analysis of bilateral LVRS via median sternotomy for treatment of severe emphysema has several major findings: (1) LVRS significantly improves FEV1 in a majority of patients, and although this improvement deteriorates over time, an increased 6-min walk distance is preserved for at least 36 months; (2) all patients experienced at least a transient decrease in dyspnea, even though some patients failed to improve their FEV1 or 6-min walk distance; (3) a high CTR demonstrated good specificity and PPV for improvement in FEV1, although with a low AZ, sensitivity, and NPV; and (4) older patients have an increased risk of surgical mortality.

LVRS transiently improved FEV1 in the majority of patients. The magnitude of improvement noted in our patients is similar to that reported by other groups performing bilateral LVRS via median sternotomy23 27 28 or thoracoscopy.7 23 Also documented was a steady deterioration in FEV1 over time extending the findings of previous studies29 30 and confirming the recent findings of another group.31 Although the FEV1 declined over time after surgery, it is important to note the natural history of emphysema is one of progressive deterioration. It is likely that the FEV1 at the end of the study would be significantly lower if those patients had never undergone LVRS, as has been suggested by other investigators.32 Future prospective studies are needed to definitively address this issue.

An important finding in this study, however, was the poor correlation between improvement in FEV1 and 6-min walk distance. Twenty-two patients failed to show a significant increase in FEV1 at any time during follow-up; 11 of these patients were able to demonstrate a significant improvement in 6-min walk distance. Additionally, the improvement in 6-min walk distance persisted over time despite a decrease in FEV1. This phenomenon may be secondary to rehabilitation as opposed to a benefit of the surgery. However, as all patients completed a course of pulmonary rehabilitation prior to surgery and were encouraged to continue rehabilitation after surgery, it is unlikely that this explains all of the increased walk distance. This interpretation is supported by the short-term improvement noted after LVRS in a randomized trial of pulmonary rehabilitation with or without bilateral, surgical volume reduction.28 In a minority of patients, we measured baseline 6-min walk distance before completion of pulmonary rehabilitation. Although the initial 6-min walk distance in this group was lower than in those patients in whom the data were collected after an initial course of rehabilitation, the subsequent responses after surgery were remarkably similar. This finding suggests a beneficial effect of the surgical procedure, confirms that FEV1 is a poor predictor of functional capacity in this group of patients, and indicates that additional outcomes such as RV or dynamic lung volumes during exercise should be investigated in future studies.

It is also notable that all patients experienced at least a transient relief of dyspnea following LVRS, even though a significant number of patients failed to meet response criteria for an improvement in FEV1. Given our previous findings that LVRS can result in decreased dynamic hyperinflation, improved diaphragmatic strength, and decreased dyspnea,4 we hypothesize that at least some of the improvement in dyspnea is related to improved dynamic hyperinflation that is not reflected through measurement of the FEV1. An additional possibility is that the improvement in dyspnea reflects the scoring system we utilized that strongly weighs functional improvement. It is notable that the improvement in dyspnea waned over time and tended to be most improved in those patients experiencing the greatest improvement in FEV1.

As it was evident that not all patients responded equally to LVRS, we sought to determine the relative contribution of different preoperative parameters in predicting successful LVRS outcomes. Theoretical reports33 and results of short-term follow-up7 have suggested that preoperative hyperinflation is important in determining spirometric improvement after LVRS. Of the parameters we evaluated, only the CTR was consistently able to predict a successful FEV1 outcome, albeit with a low AZ. The combination of the CTR with a physiologic measure of hyperinflation (RV/TLC) failed to significantly improve the AZ. Emphysema distribution has been suggested to be important in determining physiologic outcome after LVRS.6 7 34 Previous studies have shown moderate correlation between radiographic measures of emphysema heterogeneity and outcome during short-term (3 months and 6 months)7 8 24 35 36 and longer-term (24 months) follow-up.9 Although some studies have demonstrated improvement in patients with more diffuse emphysema, the magnitude of improvement appears to be less than that noted in patients with heterogeneous emphysema.8 9 These studies are limited by short-term follow-up5 6 7 24 and, potentially, by qualitative estimates of emphysema heterogeneity.6 7 8 9

A quantitative analysis of emphysema, long-term follow-up, and the use of ROC analysis that defined the sensitivity and specificity of different CTR thresholds strengthens our approach. Potential advantages of this technique include the avoidance of slice misregistration due to inconsistent breath-holds,37 38 39 the inclusion of the entire lung,15 and an improved interobserver estimation of emphysema.40 We demonstrate the high specificity but low sensitivity of having strongly upper-lobe-predominant disease as measured by a CTR of > 2.5. In this way, we suggest the good PPV (reflecting the likelihood of having a positive outcome given a positive test result) for a CTR of > 2.5, although the predictive value was lower at lower CTR thresholds. Additionally, we confirm that the NPV was much lower at all CTR thresholds. These predictive values are calculated with the assumption that our prevalence of response is generalizable to other patients with emphysema undergoing bilateral LVRS. This seems reasonable as our data are similar to the limited, published long-term results of other groups.9 31 As such, our data suggest those patients with strongly upper-lobe-predominant emphysema as measured by a CTR > 2.5 are more likely to experience a significant improvement in FEV1. However, due to the low NPV of this test, excluding patients without a CTR > 2.5 will likely exclude some patients who would also experience an improvement in FEV1. Other investigators have shown a greater short-term improvement in walk distance6 7 8 9 24 and dyspnea8 9 in patients with greater emphysema heterogeneity, suggesting that baseline radiographic parameters may be useful in predicting these outcomes. Importantly, we were unable to consistently predict a positive outcome in 6-min walk distance or TDI using quantitative CT and/or physiologic indexes.

An important finding of this study is the increased risk of surgical mortality in older patients. This supports the findings of other investigators who have demonstrated an increased perioperative mortality in older individuals,41 42 particularly in those > 70 years old.42 Similarly, others have noted an increased long-term mortality in older patients after bilateral LVRS.43 These findings highlight the importance of assessing the risks and long-term benefits of LVRS in an older, higher-risk population.

Our study population consisted of patients selected with a prejudice for individuals with focal areas of particularly severe disease amenable for resection. Diffuse emphysema was not an initial exclusion criterion; however, as the study progressed, data presented at scientific meetings and later published5 6 7 8 9 suggested that patients with diffuse emphysema had less improvement after surgery than patients with focal upper-lobe-predominant disease, introducing potential bias. Since statistical significance was achieved with a relatively small number of patients with diffuse disease (37% had a CTR <= 1.5),24 this should reinforce and not detract from the results.

A potential limitation of this and most published data are incomplete follow-up, which could bias long-term results. In our series, at each time point, a minority of patients failed to return for follow-up physiologic testing. When contacted by phone, the patients fell into four groups. One group included patients who had experienced marked functional improvements that allowed them to return to work, thereby precluding return for follow-up testing (eg, four of nine patients who could be contacted 36 months after surgery). A second group experienced significant functional deterioration that impeded their ability to return for physiologic testing (eg, two of nine patients at 36 months after surgery). Two patients considered themselves in stable condition but were not willing to travel to the medical center for follow-up testing. One additional patient underwent lung transplantation. As such, we believe that a consistent bias was not likely in our patients. Nevertheless, future controlled trials must ensure complete long-term follow-up to minimize potential bias in the interpretation of long-term physiologic and clinical outcomes.

In summary, our prospective assessment of LVRS confirms improvement in physiologic function, exercise capacity, and breathlessness in many patients. Although pulmonary function deteriorates after the initial 12 months, exercise capacity and dyspnea improvement are partly preserved up to 36 months after bilateral LVRS. Importantly, we document that emphysema distribution, as measured by quantitative helical CT, is the best predictor of a successful FEV1 outcome, albeit with a low AZ. In addition, it less consistently predicted successful 6-min walk or TDI outcomes. Unfortunately, the lack of correlation between spirometric improvement and improved walk distance and the inability of the CT scan to accurately predict functional improvement in these same parameters suggest a limited value to radiographic screening.


    Footnotes
 
Abbreviations: AZ = area under receiver operating characteristic curve; CTR = CT emphysema ratio; DLCO = diffusion capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide; LVRS = lung volume reduction surgery; NPV = negative predictive value; PPV = positive predictive value; ROC = receiver operating characteristic; RV = residual volume; TDI = transitional dyspnea index; TLC = total lung capacity

Preliminary data on a subset of patients were presented at the Annual Scientific Session of the Radiologic Society of North America, Chicago, IL, December 1996 and December 1998, and also at the Annual Scientific Session of the American Thoracic Society, San Francisco, CA, May 1997.

This research was supported by National Institutes of Health NHLBI grant P50HL46487, NIH/NCRR 3 MO1 RR00042–33S3, NIH/NIA P60 AG08808–06, RO1 HL56309, a General Electric Radiology Research Academic Fellowship, a grant from General Electric Medical Systems, CT Division, and by Research Funds from the Department of Veterans Affairs. Dr. Kazerooni is a General Electric – Association of University Radiologists Fellow. Dr. Curtis is a Career Investigator of the American Lung Association of Michigan.

Received for publication April 7, 2000. Accepted for publication December 5, 2000.


    References
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 Abstract
 Introduction
 Materials and Methods
 Results
 Discussion
 References
 

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