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* From the Divisions of Cardiovascular Medicine, Stanford University Medical Center, and the Veterans Affairs Palo Alto Health Care System (Drs. Raxwal, Shetler, Do, Myers, Atwood, and Froelicher), Palo Alto, CA; and University of West Virginia (Dr. Morise), Morgantown, WV.
Correspondence to: Victor Froelicher, MD, Cardiology Division (111C), Veterans Affairs Palo Alto Health Care System, 3801 Miranda Ave, Palo Alto, CA 94304; e-mail: vicmd{at}aol.com
| Abstract |
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Background: The American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines for exercise testing recommend the use of multivariable equations to enhance the diagnostic characteristics of the standard treadmill test. Most of these equations use complicated statistical techniques to provide diagnostic estimates of CAD. Simplified scores derived from such equations that require physicians only to add points have been developed for pretest estimates of disease and for prognosis. However, no simplified score has been developed specifically for the diagnosis of CAD using exercise test results.
Methods: Consecutive patients referred for
evaluation of chest pain who underwent standard treadmill testing
followed by coronary angiography were studied. A logistic regression
model was used to predict clinically significant (
50% stenosis)
CAD and then the variables and coefficients were used to derive a
simplified score. The simplified score was calculated as follows:
(6 x maximal heart rate code) + (5 x ST-segment depression code)
+ (4 x age code) + angina pectoris code + hypercholesterolemia code
+ diabetes code + treadmill angina index code. The simplified score had
a range from 6 to 95, with < 40 designated as low probability,
between 40 and 60 was intermediate probability, and > 60 was high
probability for CAD.
Results: A total of 1,282 male patients without a prior myocardial infarction underwent exercise treadmill testing and coronary angiography in the derivation group, and there were 476 male patients in the validation group from another institution. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (± SE) for the ST-segment response alone was 0.67 as compared to 0.79 ± 0.01 for the diagnostic score (p > 0.001). The prevalence of significant disease for the men was 27% in the low-probability group, 62% in the intermediate-probability group, and 92% in the high-probability group, which was similar to the prevalence in the validation group, with 22%, 58%, and 92% in low-, intermediate-, and high-probability groups, respectively. The low-probability group had < 4% prevalence of severe disease. In both populations, 7 more patients out of 100 were correctly classified than with the use of ST-segment criteria. When used as a clinical management strategy, the score has a sensitivity of 88% and a specificity of 96%.
Conclusion: This simplified exercise score that estimates the probability of CAD can be easily applied without a calculator and is a useful and valid tool that can help physicians manage patients presenting with chest pain.
Key Words: clinical prediction rules coronary artery disease exercise testing scores
| Introduction |
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The exercise ECG test is the recommended test for diagnosing coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients with chest pain and at intermediate probability for CAD.1 Statistical techniques that combine the patients medical history, symptoms of chest pain, hemodynamic data, and exercise ECG response have been demonstrated to better predict CAD than a single ECG criterion like ST-segment depression.2 Studies have shown that the diagnostic value of exercise testing can be improved by considering several factors in the test interpretation,3 4 5 6 7 but issues remain about their portability.8 In addition, even though the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines recommend that equations should be used to increase the value of the test,9 many clinicians have not used them because of their complexity. Resolution of these two limitations to the application of equations (that is, portability and complexity) would be especially helpful today when more than half of the exercise tests are performed by noncardiologists. As health-care costs continue to increase, emphasis will grow on using the exercise tests as the gatekeeper to expensive interventions.10 Furthermore, there is an awareness of the need to apply scores for better decision making.11 Therefore, we have attempted to develop and demonstrate the portability of an easily applied clinical score that provides a management strategy for the noncardiologist evaluating patients with suspected coronary disease.
| Materials and Methods |
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A complete clinical history was obtained at the time of exercise treadmill testing, and > 90% of patients were in the intermediate pretest probability level specified by the guidelines. While much of these data were gathered prospectively using computerized forms,13 14 some of the patients initially studied had incomplete data requiring retrospective chart review.
West Virginia University Validation Population: Nine hundred eighteen consecutive patients (52% were male patients) with complete data underwent exercise treadmill testing at West Virginia University Hospital between 1981 and 1998 to evaluate chest pain possibly due to coronary disease. All patients underwent coronary angiography within 4 months of the exercise treadmill test, and the same exclusion criteria were applied as for the VA population. The 476 men from this group were utilized to validate the exercise test score derived from the VA patients. The 442 women were utilized to determine if an exercise score specific to women was needed. A complete clinical history was obtained prospectively at the time of exercise treadmill testing using the same computerized database.
Exercise Treadmill Testing
The 12-lead maximal effort exercise tests were performed
utilizing standard graduated treadmill protocols consistent with
American Heart Association guidelines.1
Patients were
encouraged to give a maximal effort but not to allow their angina to
reach levels higher than previously experienced. The results were
analyzed and reported utilizing a computerized database at all three
institutions (EXTRA; Mosby Publishers; Chicago, IL).15
The
ST-segment response considered was the most horizontal or downsloping
ST-segment depression in any lead except aVR during exercise or
recovery. An abnormal response was defined as
1 mm of horizontal or
downsloping ST-segment depression. No test result was classified as
indeterminate,16
treatment with medication was not
withheld, and no maximal heart rate targets were applied.
Coronary Angiography
Coronary artery narrowing was visually estimated and expressed
as percent lumen diameter stenosis. Patients with a 50% narrowing in
one or more of the following were considered to have significant
angiographically confirmed CAD: the left anterior descending, left
circumflex, right coronary arteries or their major branches, or a 50%
narrowing in the left main coronary artery. Severe disease was
considered to include two vessels with this criterion if one is
proximal left anterior descending or three vessels or left main. The
50% lesion criterion was chosen to be consistent with the cooperative
trialists choice.17
Decisions for cardiac catheterization were consistent with clinical practice. Analyses were performed with the investigators blinded to clinical and angiographic results.
Statistical Methods
A statistical technique was used to separate subjects into those
with and without significant angiographically confirmed disease based
on clinical and measured exercise variables in the two derivation
populations of 1,282 men and 442 women using Number Cruncher
Statistical System (NCSS Statistical Software; Kaysville, UT). Forward
selection was used with entry at a significance level > 0.05. The
general linear logistic regression model used took the following form:
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How well the model separates patients with and without a given outcome (CAD) was assessed by means of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, which ranges from 0 to 1, with 0.5 corresponding to no discrimination (ie, random performance) and 1.0 to perfect discrimination.
Score Derivation
While multivariable logistic regression techniques have much to
recommend them, the equations they produce are complicated and it is
difficult to understand the relative importance of selected variables.
Moreover, the equations take the form of exponentials and require the
use of a calculator in order to estimate the probability of disease. To
decrease the complexity of these equations, it is possible to use the
variables chosen in logistic regression in a simple linear score. We
first coded all variables with the same number of intervals so that the
coefficients would be proportional. Then we coded the bin with the
larger value to be associated with higher probability of disease. For
instance, if 5 is the chosen interval, dichotomous variables are 0 if
not present and 5 if present and continuous variables like age and
heart rate are coded in 5 bins by appropriate ranges. All codes then
would be directly related to probability (ie, a heart rate
code of 5 would be a low heart rate while an age code of 5 would be for
the oldest individuals), and the smallest coefficient is associated
with the least important variable. The multiplier of this least
important variable was reduced to unity and the other coefficients into
their proportional weight or importance by dividing each coefficient by
the smallest coefficient. This makes the relative importance of the
selected variables very obvious. Such techniques have been applied
before for Cox hazard function equations. This approach results in a
very simple linear score in which the health-care provider merely
compiles the variables in the score, multiples by the appropriate
number, and then adds up the products. Surprisingly, these simple
linear scores have the same ROC areas as the more complicated equations
requiring the calculation of exponentials.
Three steps were used to derive the new treadmill score. Initially, we tested the validity/portability of the pretest score of Morise et al18 by comparing it to an equation derived in our population (ROC area under curve [AUC] = 0.71 vs 0.73, no significant difference).18 Second, we derived a non-ECG equation by considering all of the hemodynamic variables, appropriate products, and their differences from baseline (ie, metabolic equivalents [METs], systolic BP, maximal heart rate, and treadmill angina index) in a logistic regression model (ROC AUC = 0.68). Third, we entered the Morise pretest score, the non-ECG equation, and amount of exercise-induced ST-segment depression into a logistic model. The resulting equation exhibited a ROC AUC of approximately 0.79. In order to further simplify, the variables previously chosen were reconsidered in a logistic model that eliminated some variables. This logistic equation was then used to create our final simplified score.
Change in systolic BP and METs were eliminated when considered with the pretest variables and exercise-induced ST-segment depression. Cigarette smoking, obesity, and family history were eliminated from the pretest variables originally present in the Morise pretest score. A simple linear score was derived by multiplying the coefficient of the variables from the multivariable equation with the variable code. The mens score was calculated as follows: (6 x maximal heart rate code) + (5 x ST-segment depression code) + (4 x age code) + angina pectoris code + hypercholesterolemia code + diabetes code + treadmill angina index code.
This diagnostic score did not perform well for the 442 symptomatic women (AUC < 0.65) and so a female-specific score was derived. This score requires validation in a large sample of women at another institution since the VA population is 98% male.
Coding of the variables is illustrated in Figure 1 , which can be carried on an index card.
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| Results |
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Table 3 demonstrates the probability of CAD in the three groups (ie, low, intermediate, and high). In the derivation group, 25% of the patients were classified as low probability, 55% as intermediate probability, and 20% as high probability. The prevalence of any CAD in the low-probability group was 27%, 62% in the intermediate-probability group, and 92% in the high-probability group, which was comparable to the validation group, with 22%, 58%, and 92% in low-, intermediate-, and high-probability groups, respectively. The low-probability groups had a < 4% prevalence of severe CAD. Thus, besides exhibiting portability, our score did not have a calibration problem (that is, cut points had similar probabilities in different populations).
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| Discussion |
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Specific recommendations are appropriate for respective probability groups with the caveat that physician judgment is still paramount in the decision process. Table 6 displays the paradigm for the clinical reaction to the estimated probability of CAD. There is no need for immediate further testing for the patients in the low-probability group, since less than 1 in 4 patients will have clinically significant CAD and less than 1 in 25 patients would have severe disease. The low-probability patient can be reassured that symptoms are most likely not due to CAD. However, if the symptoms do not abate, good clinical judgment should be utilized (ie, repeat testing perhaps with imaging). In addition, a prognostic score can be used to reassure the low-probability patient as well as the physician.20 However, the patients assigned to the high-probability group may need an intervention if clinically appropriate and are potential candidates for coronary angiography. In the high-probability subgroup of patients, the use of antianginal treatment is indicated. In the group of patients with intermediate probability of CAD, there is need for the other tests, such as stress echocardiography or nuclear angiography to clarify diagnosis, and antianginal medications may be tried.
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Limitations
Since workup bias was not limited by protocol in this study, our
results may be affected. However, we and others have anecdotally noted
that because more and more patients are undergoing coronary angiography
irrespective of the exercise treadmill test result, the importance of
eliminating workup bias in this setting has lessened. It is encouraging
to see that our results and population characteristics are similar to
the only study to reduce workup bias by protocol.24
We
demonstrated that this score did not discriminate in women, but we have
a specific new exercise score for women that we plan to validate.
| Conclusion |
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| Appendix 1 |
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where age < 40 = 3 points, age between 40 years and 55 years = 6 points, and age > 55 years = 9 points. For estrogen status, 3 points were subtracted for positive status and 3 points were added for negative status. Typical chest pain = 5 points, atypical chest pain = 3 points, nonanginal chest pain = 1 point, and no chest pain = 0 points. For diabetes mellitus, 2 points were added and 1 point was added for each of the other five risk factors (hypertension, present smoking, hypercholesterolemia, family history of CAD, and obesity).
Multivariable Pretest Equation for Diagnosing Any CAD Derived in
Our Population
- 2.9 + (0.55 x age code) + (0.21 times] angina pectoris
code) + (0.13 x hypercholesterolemia code) + T-wave abnormality code
+ diabetes code - standing heart rate code
Multivariable Posttest Equation for Any CAD
- 4.36 + (0.47 x depression code) + (0.56 x heart rate
code) + (0.39 x age code) + (0.14 x angina pectoris code) +
(0.14 x hypercholesterolemia code) + (0.12 x angina index code) +
diabetes code,
where angina pectoris (definite/typical angina pectoris = 5
points, probable/atypical = 3 points, noncardiac pain = 1 point,
none = 0 points); hypercholesterolemia (yes = 5 points, no = 0
points); ST-segment depression (< 1 mm = 0 points, 1 to 2 mm = 3
points, > 2 mm = 5 points); diabetes (yes = 5 points, no = 0
points); age (< 40 years = 0 points, 40 to 55 years = 3 points,
> 55 years = 5 points); treadmill angina index (index of 0 = 0
points; index of 1 = 3 points, index of 2 = 5 points); maximal
heart rate (< 100 beats/min = 5 points, 100 to 130 beats/min = 4
points, 130 to 150 beats/min = 3 points, 160 to 190 beats/min = 2,
190 to 220 beats/min = 1 point, > 220 beats/min = 0 points); METs
(< 3 = 5 points, 3 to 6 = 4 points, 6 to 9 = 3 points, 9 to
12 = 2 points, 12 to 15 = 1 point, > 15 = 0 points);
pressure, ie, change of BP from the baseline during exercise
(< 20 mm Hg = 5 points, > 20 mm Hg = 0 points).
Duke Treadmill Score
Duration of exercise in minutes (5 x maximal ST-segment
deviation during or after exercise in millimeters) - (4 x the
treadmill angina index), where angina index has a value of 0 if the
patient had no angina during exercise, 1 if the patient had nonlimiting
angina, and 2 if angina was the reason the patient stopped exercising.
Glossary
Equation mathematical representation of the result of a
multivariable statistical technique that attempts to discriminate those
with and without disease
Code a numerical value for the variables included in an equation or score
Score a simplified version of an equation that only requires adding or subtracting of coded points
Multiple logistic model a multivariable statistical technique that attempts to discriminate those with and without disease and provides a probability of being in the diseased group from 0 to 1 calculated by a log equation
ROC receiver operator characteristic curve is a graphic representation of the relationship between sensitivity and specificity for a diagnostic test
AUC area under the ROC curve is a measure of how well the model separates patients with and without a given outcome (CAD). The AUC ranges from 0 to 1, with 0.5 corresponding to no discrimination (ie, random performance), 1.0 to perfect discrimination, and values < 0.5 to worse-than-random performance.
Portability ability of a score or equation to discriminate in other than the population in which it is derived
Calibration how well the cut points of a score or equation correlate with actual disease probabilities in different populations
| Footnotes |
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Received for publication December 20, 2000. Accepted for publication December 22, 2000.
| References |
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This article has been cited by other articles:
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S. Lai, A. Kaykha, T. Yamazaki, M. Goldstein, J. M. Spin, J. Myers, and V. F. Froelicher Treadmill scores in elderly men J. Am. Coll. Cardiol., February 18, 2004; 43(4): 606 - 615. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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A. P. Morise and F. Jalisi Evaluation of pretest and exercise test scores to assess all-cause mortality in unselected patients presenting for exercise testing with symptoms of suspected coronary artery disease J. Am. Coll. Cardiol., September 3, 2003; 42(5): 842 - 850. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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OTHER ARTICLES NOTED (Nov 01 to 18 Oct 02) Evid. Based Nurs., January 1, 2003; 6(1): e1 - 1. [Full Text] [PDF] |
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M. Lipinski, D. Do, V. Froelicher, L. Osterberg, B. Franklin, J. West, and E. Atwood Comparison of Exercise Test Scores and Physician Estimation in Determining Disease Probability Arch Intern Med, October 8, 2001; 161(18): 2239 - 2244. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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